Introduction to Cohort Component Method (Population Projection)

Introduction to Cohort Component Method (Population Projection)

Learning Objective: 

Students will explain the basic idea behind the cohort component method for population projection. By the end of the class, students will construct his/her own spreadsheet based on the knowledge acquired during an assignment prior to the in-class module.

Assessment: 

Review of individual spreadsheets to identify basic points and ideas of the cohort component method for population projection.

Logistics: 

 

Starting from the discussion of weaknesses in the trend extrapolation method, the class will share goals of the learning cohort component method.  A team-based brainstorming about the crucial life events that are relevant to population forecasting will follow the initial discussion.  Each team will develop its own flow chart to explain how to build a spreadsheet to project population.  The instructor will share some of the team ideas with the entire class and briefly comment. 

Time schedule (75 minutes):

1) Opening remarks: Recap the trend extrapolation method in population projection and its weakness. Share objectives of cohort component method (5 min).

2) Group discussion 2 (Jigsaw): Assign each member a different cohort to represent. Start with the same cohort reps to brainstorm the life events that are relevant to population projections (5 min + 2 min transition time) Then come back to the group & share the potential life events of each cohort (3 min)

3) Group discussion 3: Given the life events they come up with, each group will propose an idea how to project population 5 years after (discussion 7 min --> selected presentation & class discussion 8 min)

4) Group research 1: Provide a life table and population data of one period (2005, for example). Do research about life table: what each column means, what number should be used for mortality rate (10 min)

5) Clicker vote about the answer + a group who answered correctly will explain the reasons. A quick Q&A (5 min)

6) Group research 2: Provide two periods of population data. Discuss how to project the number of youngest cohort within the group (10 min)

7) Clicker vote about the answer + a group who answered correctly will explain the reasons. A quick Q&A (5 min)

8) Group research 3: Discuss what does the difference between expected survivors from 2005 and actual population in 2010 and how to use the “difference” for future population projection (10 min)

9) Clicker vote about the answer + a group who answered correctly will explain the reasons. A quick Q&A (5 min)

10) Wrap up comments, questions, and discussions (10 min)

Homework: Each student team must construct its own spreadsheet by the beginning of the next class (they can use the textbook for reference).  The next class session will start with a review of their models and proceed to projection.